>>>We’ll have a surprise guest joining us today and we’ll talk about how we’ve been performing in our new way of collecting income, and we’ll do a trade recap from the most recent opportunity on MU and more — the Stonkamania party starts at 1:30 PM ET!<<<
Most traders think credit spreads are about guessing direction and hoping you picked the right strike. That’s the amateur approach — and it’s why most people struggle to stay consistent.
I’m going to show you the exact mathematical framework I use to position credit spreads with an 80-plus percent probability of profit. This isn’t guesswork.
It’s pure market maker math, and once you understand how to calculate it, everything changes.
The ATM Straddle Formula That Changes Everything
Here’s the calculation that matters: Add the at-the-money call price to the at-the-money put price. That total gives you the expected move — what market makers are pricing in for the stock’s range.
Let me walk through a real example.
Take Alphabet (GOOGL) with an $18 market maker move from $255. Subtract that $18 from the current price and you get $237 — that’s your floor. Alphabet can drop $18 — a pretty darn big move — and a credit spread positioned at that floor can still be profitable.
Or look at Newmont Mining (NEM) at $89 with a $4.50 expected move. The floor becomes $84.50. Position your strikes at or near these calculated levels and you’re working with roughly 84% probability of profit.
Now… as you probably already know, NOTHING is guaranteed in trading. We’re just playing probabilities here to give ourselves an edge.
And this is where it gets interesting…
An 84% probability trade should normally only give you about a 16% return on investment. But during high periods of implied volatility (IV) — especially before earnings — you can collect 20-25% ROI — the sweet spot — with that same 84% probability.
Why? Volatility premium compression. The IV is juiced, so you’re collecting more credit than the probability alone would suggest. That’s your edge.
Turning the Math Into Real Positions
Let’s make this practical. Say I’m selling the 237.5 puts on GOOGL using a $2.50-wide bull put credit spread. I can collect about 50 cents in premium — or $50 per contract.
When I scale that spread to a $250 width, I’m risking $200 to make $50. That’s exactly the 25% return target with your win probability above 80% baked in.
This isn’t about being right on direction every time — that’s impossible. It’s about positioning where the math is in your favor and the premium you’re collecting justifies the risk you’re taking.
Anything less than 20-25% is not worth the risk in my book.
Stop guessing on credit spreads. Start calculating the market maker floor, position your strikes intelligently, and let probability do the heavy lifting.
The team at Lance Ippolito Trading
Lance doesn’t want the CCP spying on him, so you’ll never find him on TikTok. Same goes for other social media sites, which are filled with impersonators, scammers and crypto bros.
You can only find him on his personal YouTube Channel — smash that Subscribe button! https://www.youtube.com/@LanceIppolito
And in his private Telegram channel: https://t.me/+-gVwEIwGJhplMTgx
Important Note: No one from the team at Lance Ippolito Trading, New Money Crew or any of its associated brands will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. What Happened In Vegas Changed How I Trade FOREVER
I just got back from Vegas with Rodney…
We had one simple goal: turn any amount of money into $500 playing casino games.
Slots, blackjack, roulette, craps… didn’t matter.
Here’s what happened.
I sat down at a blackjack table and got dealt two sixes against the dealer’s four.
Split them both.
Won $100.
Not bad, right?
But here’s the thing… Blackjack only gives you a 42% chance of winning each hand.
That’s it… 42%.
And honestly, we got lucky.
Rodney? He wasn’t so fortunate at the craps table — $100 gone in two rolls.
That’s when it hit me.
Why are we gambling with 42% odds when I could be using a trading setup that’s been hitting 100% of the time?
No joke… 22 trades in a row.
Each one is designed to target exactly $500.
And unlike Vegas, this doesn’t rely on luck.
If the market moves a few ticks like it typically does and does not make any drastic downturns, you have a shot to walk away with your profit.
Doesn’t matter if the stock goes up or down.
And at 7 p.m. ET this Sunday, I‘m going LIVE for the very first time to talk about this secret trade on camera.
The same one that’s produced a $500 payout 22 times in a row.
While no one out there can guarantee returns or against losses…
You’ll see exactly how someone starting with $1,000 could be looking at $1,500 by Friday afternoon..
Rodney will be there too… and this time, we’re not leaving anything to chance.
If you’d like to see the exact step-by-step process of this trade plan and join what I’m calling the “$500 Challenge”…
Save Your Seat for Sunday Here!
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Stated results are from live published alerts between 8/5/25 and 10/26/25. The win rate has been 100% on the options with an average return of 26% over a 3 Day hold time.
