50 wins on 59 trades in the last 3 months? You have to check this out.
As you know, I like to show you the work, not just the results.
Lately I’ve been refining how I read the last few minutes of a trading session to set up the trades I might hold overnight.
What I’m Testing In The Lab
I’m “messing around” with a straightforward into-the-close framework to make the decision more objective:
- Range math: How much did we move gross (the day’s high–low range) versus net (where we ended vs. where we started)? I’m studying that ratio as a clue for whether we burned a lot of energy intraday without getting far — or actually went somewhere.
- Closing location: Where are we finishing relative to the prior close and today’s open? That helps me place the end-of-day picture in context before I decide if an overnight attempt makes sense.
That’s it. Two dials, kept simple on purpose. I’ll continue to poke at this and share what looks useful. Until the rules are crisp, it stays experimental and small.
Where I Put Real Capital
Separately, I have a rules-based, defined-risk overnight approach that I already run. You can learn more about it here.
It’s not about guessing a headline. It’s about entering near the close with a clear plan and letting the tendency of the market in the next session do the work.
I keep the risk known up front, and I don’t need a perfect read of every after-hours move to participate.
That distinction matters. While, as I explained above, I’m happy to keep testing ways to read the final 30–45 minutes more cleanly, I’m not replacing the overnight process that’s earned my trust.
A Simple Checklist I’m Using While I Test
Even without my notebook of ratios, here are two observations I’m logging near the close:
- Did price work hard (big intraday range) but finish near where it started, or did it actually travel (big net move)?
- Are we finishing near an important reference (yesterday’s close or today’s open), or did we push away from those levels?
Writing those down keeps me from forcing trades out of adrenaline.
It also helps me decide whether an overnight attempt deserves a look — or whether to wait for a better setup.
— Nate Tucci
P.S. See setups like this and much more every weekday at 10am and 3:30pm Eastern on Opening Playbook & Closing Playbook. Don’t miss it!
