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Every trader knows that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. But when I see the same pattern repeat across four different decades — each delivering double-digit gains — I pay attention.
I’ve been digging into what happens when the Fed starts cutting rates in September during periods of economic uncertainty. And what I found has me more bullish than I’ve been all year.
We’re looking at Sept. 17 as our potential catalyst date this year. So I went back through the history books to see what similar setups delivered.
The results? Pretty remarkable.
The September Rate Cut Pattern
Let me walk you through the data. Back in September 1974, we were dealing with stagflation — high inflation combined with economic stagnation.
Sound familiar? When the Fed started cutting that September, the S&P 500 delivered a 30% gain over the following year.
Fast forward to September 1984, and we saw a 10% gain in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Then September 1995 produced a 23% rally. And September 1998 delivered 20% gains when rate cuts began around the same timeframe.
That’s four separate decades, four different market environments, but the same basic setup: September rate cuts during periods of uncertainty leading to significant rallies.
Why This Time Could Be Even Better
Here’s what has me really excited about our current position. We’re not just looking at any ordinary bull market setup — I believe we’re sitting right before the final melt-up.
The ingredients are all there…
Rates are still historically elevated, giving the Fed plenty of ammunition to provide stimulus. We’ve got AI speculation continuing to build momentum, similar to how internet speculation drove the late ’90s rally. And seasonal patterns strongly favor the fourth quarter for big moves.
Most importantly, we’re seeing small caps finally starting to participate after underperforming for so long. When the broader market starts moving together like this, it often signals the beginning of something much larger.
I’m not saying this rally will last forever — nothing does. But if history is any guide, the next several months could deliver the kind of gains that define entire trading careers. The key is being positioned before the crowd realizes what’s happening.
That’s exactly what we’ll be covering in our daily “Opening Playbook” sessions at 10 a.m. ET, and Closing Playbook at 3:30 p.m.! Join us as we navigate what could be the most explosive rally in decades.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Only ‘APEX’ Stocks Will Survive When September’s Volatility Kicks In
Nate and I noticed that only a handful of “APEX” stocks deliver almost ALL the wealth in the entire stock market…
Now we want to show you how to use these stocks to beat September’s treacherous waters.
