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Seasonality’s a funny thing.
Every year, we see the same patterns unfold — like clockwork — across different asset classes.
And one of the clearest seasonal signals out there?
The August-September trades in gold and Bitcoin.
Let’s start with gold…
Historically, July through September has been one of the most bullish stretches for everyone’s favorite precious metal. Makes sense, right? These are typically volatile, sub-par months for the stock market.
So when fear rises, money rotates into “safe havens.”
And gold has been the flight-to-safety asset for generations.
So far, that’s playing out pretty clean again this year. Stocks are already looking a little shaky here in early August — and wouldn’t you know it, gold’s starting to perk up, moving about 2.8% higher the past week.
If volatility sticks around, gold could continue to grind higher through late September.
Now… Bitcoin is the wildcard.
Traditionally, August and September are not kind to crypto. If you go back over the last 12 years of data, August is basically flat on average.
And September? It’s the single worst month of the year for Bitcoin — both in terms of average and median return.
But this year is weird.
Back during the last correction, Bitcoin held up better than the Nasdaq. That’s not something we’ve seen consistently in the past.
And now people are starting to ask…
Could Bitcoin actually be acting like a new safe haven?
I’m not quite ready to say yes — but it’s worth watching.
Seasonally speaking, we should expect crypto to stay muted for the next few weeks. That’s normal. But I don’t think we’ve seen the peak for this crypto cycle yet.
As a matter of fact, BTC got a nice little bump today after Trump announced an executive order allowing alternative assets like crypto and private equity in your 401(k).
If we follow the usual rhythm, October and November tend to be two of the most bullish months for Bitcoin.
So a quiet August and September wouldn’t be a red flag — it could be a buying opportunity.
In short:
- Gold looks strong into volatility (as expected).
- Bitcoin may pause soon — but a bigger rally could be right around the corner.
Remember: when everyone gets scared, the smart money rotates early.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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