>>>Join Nate and I at 3:30 PM ET for Closing Playbook — we’ll cover the day’s most important, actionable trading opportunities, education, strategies and more!<<<
Something fascinating happened this September — Bitcoin didn’t follow its usual script. Typically, September is one of the worst month’s for Bitcoin, but this year was different.
We’re almost through it now, and Bitcoin didn’t fall like it usually does — in fact, it’s up about $7k over the past month. That’s unusual, and frankly, it sets up what could be an incredibly promising fourth quarter.
I’ve been updating my Bitcoin seasonality chart, and the patterns are crystal clear.
October, November and December represent the most bullish quarter for Bitcoin — very, very promising territory. While my hope was that we’d get a touch of a key technical level before October, I don’t think it’s going to happen.
But here’s the thing: Even if Bitcoin stays flat here, the setup is still compelling.
The 50-Week Moving Average Strategy
If I want a high-conviction trade, I really would love to see Bitcoin touch the 50-week moving average again. Based on my recent analysis, that might be around the $105k price point.
Keep in mind, even if Bitcoin stays flat, the 50-week moving average is going to catch up to current prices.
If we get a touch or even a near touch at any point, that’s exactly what I’d be looking at for a high-probability setup. The beauty of this approach is that it combines both technical analysis with proven seasonal trends — a powerful 1-2 punch that I’ve seen work repeatedly in Bitcoin’s cycles.
The Easiest Way to Execute This Trade
The simplest approach?
I like to use iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — it’s the Bitcoin ETF, just like buying S&P 500 (SPY) for the index. No need to mess around with crypto exchanges or wallet complications.
IBIT
- BUY 19 DEC 25 $69 CALL
- SELL 19 DEC 25 $70 CALL
- Net Debit $0.28
- 251% Max ROI if IBIT closes above $70 by expiration on Dec. 19.
You can trade it just like any other stock, which makes position sizing and risk management much cleaner.
The combination of Bitcoin breaking its typical September weakness pattern, combined with the historically strong Q4 seasonal tailwinds, creates what I consider a compelling risk-reward scenario.
Sometimes the best opportunities come when the usual patterns shift, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram:https://t.me/+abM5RWRJKrpkNWI5
- YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@NewMoneyCrew
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Graham Lindman Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. The $1 Secret Wall Street Doesn’t Want You to Know!
Most traders believe the best way to lock in winners from the stock market is to hope for big 5-10% moves in the underlying…
But that’s exactly what Wall Street wants you to think.
But thanks to a specific market loophole, regular traders like you can now trade blue-chip stocks for $1 or less per contract — while targeting weekly double-digit winners!
